Geopolitical intelligence for consequential decisions
Intelligence built around your decision
Almaberg is a geopolitical and economic intelligence and forecasting firm for corporations and investors. We combine quantitative risk modeling, qualitative research—including interviews with key stakeholders—and specialist expert assessment to support market entry and exit, investment exposure, sanctions and counterparty risk, trade-corridor disruption, and supply-chain resilience. We also help clients identify relevant stakeholders and facilitate introductions and dialogue where appropriate. Engagements begin with a defined business decision and can develop into recurring advisory, forecasting, and monitoring.
Clear answers to high-stakes international decisions.
Intelligence and forecasting for business and strategic decisions where geopolitical and economic uncertainty has material financial or operational consequences.
Contact us ↗Explore our approach ↗Client questionnaire ↗Understand the market.
Define the decision.
We are a geopolitical and economic intelligence and forecasting firm that helps clients navigate complex international markets and make high-value business and strategic decisions where geopolitical and economic uncertainty has material financial or operational consequences.
Our analysis combines quantitative modeling, interviews with key stakeholders and input from relevant specialists. We also help clients identify key players and facilitate introductions and dialogue where appropriate.
To give each client a clear, actionable answer to a defined business or strategic decision, rather than broad geopolitical research.
Where uncertainty meets exposure.
Market entry, exit and expansion
Exposure to geopolitical and macroeconomic risk
Sanctions and counterparty risk
Trade-corridor and supply-chain disruption
Banking infrastructure and regulatory requirements
Infrastructure projects and commercial partnerships
Three components. One assessment.
Every engagement combines three components.
Quantitative modeling
Our data scientists use established quantitative methods, including econometric modeling, regression analysis and game theory, and develop their own models to assess risks and forecast scenarios for each client.
Qualitative analysis
The analysis covers the political, economic, financial, regulatory and security dynamics of the target market, including banking infrastructure and cross-border operational constraints. Interviews with key stakeholders show how decisions are made, what constraints affect implementation and which developments matter for the client.
Expert assessment
Relevant specialists, selected for their expertise in the specific country, industry or risk being analyzed, contribute their judgment.
Based on all three components, the client receives scenario forecasts, strategic recommendations and, where necessary, risk-governance and resilience frameworks.
Start with a specific decision.
Engagements begin as targeted projects addressing a specific business or strategic decision. Where risks require continuous reassessment, they can develop into recurring advisory, forecasting or monitoring relationships.
For clients expanding internationally, implementation support includes identifying potential local partners and coordinating with appropriately licensed legal, banking and other professional service providers.
Depth where it matters.
Specialist network and country expertise
The network includes experts from leading universities and institutions, engaged according to the country, sector or risk being analyzed. This provides in-depth knowledge of each market.
Stakeholder access
We engage directly with stakeholders in target markets and can connect clients with them where appropriate.
Client-specific analysis
The analysis considers not only the risks of a country, industry or market, but also how the client’s own characteristics affect them: sector, size, ownership structure, nationality, investors and commercial partners, whether it is state-owned or private, and whether it is listed or privately held. These factors influence how governments, regulators, business partners and the public in a target market treat the client.
Banking and regulatory experience
Our team’s experience in corporate and institutional banking, regulatory analysis and risk assessment allows us to examine the practical side of operating internationally: banking infrastructure, cross-border payment arrangements, potential banking partners, corporate operating structures and applicable regulatory requirements.
Cross-disciplinary quantitative modeling
Alongside established political-risk and forecasting methods, our data scientists adapt quantitative techniques from other disciplines where they improve probability estimation, scenario analysis and the identification of risks that conventional approaches may overlook.
International interests.
Specific exposures.
Institutional investors
Banks and financial institutions
Insurance companies
Commodity and energy companies
Construction and infrastructure companies
Family offices
Private individuals
Complete the questionnaire online to tell us about your markets, objectives and concerns.
Contact us ↗Our approach
Discuss your business decision
Tell us which markets you are considering, the decision you face, and your timeline. We will use those details to scope the analysis, scenarios, and specialist expertise relevant to your exposure.
